经过几个月的唇枪舌战,是投票时候了。
周一回到纽约城,就感到大选前的躁动与兴奋。洛克菲勒中心的万国旗完全被美国国旗取代;地上铺着点缀着红兰两色星的地毯;NBC在大楼两边架设大屏显示器;新闻直播台已经摆好了。游人,市民及媒体人遍布广场四周。
今天全所息业一天。早晨开车回“家州”投票,广播中全是竞选与投票人排长队的报道。在我所居住的美丽小镇上,没有很长的队,也没有很多的躁动。红的枫叶,乡间的空气和中午暖暖的阳光增加了作为投票点的小教堂宁静与轻松。选票是纸票,用笔把选项填黑,美国历史的一部分就在这涂涂写写中完成了。
我属于关心但不热衷于政治的懒人。没有时常跟踪竞选人的一举一动,也没有细读也没有对比他们的观点。
我的决策因素,理性与非理性的,有以下几点。
我不相信政客在竞选时的说辞。美国大法官John Marshall曾说,“法官水平的最高体现,在于能直视律师双眼一个时辰而不听其一言。” 竞选辩论时的观点,都是经过各类consultant精心泡制,其价值,选不如政客在决定竞选之前的业绩。
不将目光盯在未来第一夫人身上,也不以色相取人。
关注竞选人的素质。带疤老兵寻常有;哈佛黑人古来稀。
不要过于关注可能的经济损失。竞选人的话许多都是不兑现的,这是政治的必然性。未来会如何,谁也不清楚。
思考谁更能体现美国价值。美国经济可能暂时僵死,但美国梦却有可能因为某位竞选人的获胜而活下去并继续对国际世界产生感召力。
投票如面试相亲。几分钟内看对眼了,觉到这人有气质,风度了,跟着感觉走就行了。
如此不但可能省时间,精力,也可将投票结果的正确率提高到50%。
- posted on 11/04/2008
风子 wrote:
我不相信政客在竞选时的说辞。美国大法官John Marshall曾说,“法官水平的最高体现,在于能直视律师双眼一个时辰而不听其一言。” 竞选辩论时的观点,都是经过各类consultant精心泡制,其价值,选不如政客在决定竞选之前的业绩。
不要过于关注可能的经济损失。竞选人的话许多都是不兑现的,这是政治的必然性。未来会如何,谁也不清楚。
“They care more about how you say it, not exactly what you say.” 以前找工作前做面试准备,被人点醒若干,终于搞懂了美国文化的精髓之一。 - posted on 11/04/2008
That's very true. That's why we shouldn't over-analyze things and go nuts about the election based on sound bites, factoids, and unsubstantiated claims.
It is a tragedy when people have more choices of toilet paper than choices of the President and when people are not happy with either one of the candidates. But that's something for countries like China to worry about that don't yet have a full-fledged democracy but are in the process of forging one. Hopefully, these countries can avoid known pitfalls, design and implement a better system.
老瓦 wrote:
“They care more about how you say it, not exactly what you say.” 以前找工作前做面试准备,被人点醒若干,终于搞懂了美国文化的精髓之一。 - Re: 是象是驴,该出来遛遛了posted on 11/05/2008
风子 wrote:
That's very true. That's why we shouldn't over-analyze things and go nuts about the election based on sound bites, factoids, and unsubstantiated claims.
风子这话说得有禅机,过度分析确实没必要。
- Re: 是象是驴,该出来遛遛了posted on 11/05/2008
说得好。
风子 wrote:
带疤老兵寻常有;哈佛黑人古来稀。
思考谁更能体现美国价值。美国经济可能暂时僵死,但美国梦却有可能因为某位竞选人的获胜而活下去并继续对国际世界产生感召力。 - posted on 11/05/2008
呵,最近刚换了一幅字做背景图片,第一句是“怎么说”比“说什么”更重要。
今早一大早满电视都是排长队选民的镜头,看奥巴马(遗憾没看到七月!)投票.当时看着奥巴马投票,我在想要我是他一定投老麦一票,反正他用不着自己那一票.
九点出门去投票,一上车收音机传来一个兴奋的声音:“If I vote for Obama, I'll not need to worry about gas to fill up my car and paying my mortgage anymore. If I help him, he will help me.”记者哭笑皆非地调侃,说"We got a woman who is out of her mind, or Obama has to be a genie".
学校礼堂设了两个机器,一个管一个区.门口童子军在义卖甜点,进来前遇到一个刚出去,我刚进时除了我没有其它选民.投完后另一个邻居刚来.童子军的数目多于投票点工作人员,工作人员人员多过选民.据LG说他早上六点刚过时也同样冷清.
学校放假,投票后去逛了一天商店.偌大的商店区,居然没有一个店里有一个收音机或电视在放投票新闻.到处是一批批的亚洲欧洲疯狂购物团.女儿问为什么这么多亚洲人,我说一定是这几个牌子在亚洲很热门.
晚上回到家,吃完饭来看铺天盖地是选举的电视和咖啡.咖啡要改颜色开庆祝会,我负责做南瓜派,刚学会的,今年的南瓜不浪费,新鲜南瓜派很好吃.
- Re: 是象是驴,该出来遛遛了posted on 11/05/2008
我起床晚了,我们是在一个地方投的票。公司给半天假,我投完了已经中午了,现在后悔没起早 :-)
rzp wrote:
呵,最近刚换了一幅字做背景图片,第一句是“怎么说”比“说什么”更重要。
今早一大早满电视都是排长队选民的镜头,看完奥巴马(遗憾没看到七月!)投票. - Re: 是象是驴,该出来遛遛了posted on 11/05/2008
CNN has some interesting statistics
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1
McCain leads among those with income $50k -150k, Obama leads among those with either (especially!) low income (<$50K) or high income (>$200K). - posted on 11/06/2008
Even though the bulk part is not beyond expectation -- half of white, all of black, most of the new and young voters, these are very good data. I am sure Obama's super data mining crew is doing more slicing and dicing for it and factor them into his next move more wisely for this united country.
pepper wrote:
CNN has some interesting statistics
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1 McCain leads among those with income $50k -150k, Obama leads among those with either (especially!) low income (<$50K) or high income (>$200K). - posted on 11/06/2008
Obama的获胜是美国理想(民主、自由、机会与永不放弃希望)的体现。它的象征意义有如自由女神像一般,对世界产生更强的吸引力。
记得一个在美国宪法史上很有名的案子叫Loving v. Virginia,由最高法院1967(?)年裁定。在60年代的Virginia州,不同种族之间(如案中的黑人同白人〕通婚仍然是非法的。从四十年前对黑人合法的歧视,到昨天晚上一个黑人能在Virgina州获胜,这是个很了不起的进步。美国制度自新及纠偏的能力由此可见一斑。
Niall Ferguson及其它历史学家常爱将美国帝国同罗马帝国相比。其中相似点之一,就在于在罗马帝国中非罗马人(如被征服者、移民)同作为征服者的罗马人一样,可以享受同样的权力。只要按罗马的规则玩,非罗马人也能进入社会上层并成为罗马皇帝。与此类似,在美国帝国中,移民及从前被剥夺了权力的人(如黑人及妇女)经历自身努力,也会成为帝国的统治者。据报道,在昨天世界许多国家人的(包括英国人、法国人)都希望他们是美国人。因为在许多(欧洲)国家,外来人永远是外来人。美国社会模式在世界中极为罕见的。至少在目前,能与美国模式相媲美还没有出现。
希望在世界大同那天时,世界人民能普通接受的制度中,至少有一部分是美国模式的。也希望在那里面还有“中国制造”的印记。
rzp wrote:
Even though the bulk park is not beyond expectation -- half of white, all of black, most of the new and young voters, these are very good data. I am sure Obama's super data mining crew is doing more slicing and dicing for it and factor them into his next move more wisely for this united country.
pepper wrote:
CNN has some interesting statistics
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/polls/#val=USP00p1 McCain leads among those with income $50k -150k, Obama leads among those with either (especially!) low income (<$50K) or high income (>$200K). - Re: 是象是驴,该出来遛遛了posted on 11/09/2008
我觉得我的思考方式跟风子很近似,当然没他老人家渊博了,呵呵。 - posted on 11/12/2008
The November issue of the American Bar Association Journal features, on its cover and back, parallel images of two possible election outcomes. Inside the issue are symmetric analyses of who would pick whom should each candidate prevail, with almost identical editorials and layouts. Nothing could have been more balanced or even sided than that. McCain is on the cover page (a mistake, in my view or hindsight), presumably due to the aliphatic order of the first letter of his last name.
- posted on 11/12/2008
The November issue of the American Bar Association Journal features, on its cover and back, parallel images of two possible election outcomes. Inside the issue are symmetric analyses of who would pick whom should each candidate prevail, with almost identical editorials and layouts. Nothing could have been more balanced or even sided than that. Obama is on the back page (a mistake, in my view or hindsight), presumably due to the aliphatic order of the first letter of his last name.
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